Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Joe Ryan
Minnesota Twins · Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.43 · WHIP 1.06 · K 31% · 12 starts
JOE RYAN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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JOE
RYAN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam47%94 mph
Sweeper15%81 mph
Splitter14%89 mph
Sinker9%94 mph
Knuckle-Curve8%80 mph
Slider7%86 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.43
WHIP
1.06
K%
31%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .364 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.2
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
2.25
ERA
1.25
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
31% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 2.25 ERA · 30% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
6 255°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.