Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOEY BART
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOEY
BART
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
23
Grade F
Matchup
VS Sonny Gray · RHP
87.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
22
VS
ERA
2.83
WHIP
1.15
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 82.9 | 89.9 |
| Barrel% | 4% | 9% |
| Hard Hit% | 30% | 43% |
| xwOBA | .314 | .352 |
| xSLG | .462 | .470 |
| Whiff% | 34% | 18% |
| Chase% | 33% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
82.9 avg EV · 4.3% barrel · 30% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Gray—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
6 212°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game