Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Joey Cantillo
Cleveland Guardians · Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.35 · WHIP 1.69 · K 30% · 10 starts
JOEY CANTILLO
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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JOEY
CANTILLO
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Curveball43%80 mph
4-Seam25%93 mph
Changeup21%82 mph
Cutter11%87 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.35
WHIP
1.69
K%
30%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 27% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 24% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .401 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 55% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.2
K/GM
3.5
IP/GM
2.55
ERA
1.53
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
30% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 55% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.55 ERA · 27% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
8 284°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+19%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:05 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.