Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Joey Cantillo
Cleveland Guardians · Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.86 · WHIP 1.41 · K 26% · 10 starts
JOEY CANTILLO
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
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H
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JOEY
CANTILLO
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Curveball41%81 mph
4-Seam23%93 mph
Changeup22%82 mph
Cutter13%88 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.86
WHIP
1.41
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 34% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 15.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .320 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.2
K/GM
5.0
IP/GM
1.44
ERA
1.08
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.44 ERA · 31% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:57 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.