Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JONATHAN ORNELAS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JONATHAN
ORNELAS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Framber Valdez · LHP
87.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
9
VS
ERA
4.82
WHIP
1.43
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 65.5 | 91.6 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 63% |
| xwOBA | .000 | .295 |
| xSLG | .001 | .374 |
| Whiff% | 50% | 21% |
| Chase% | 100% | 28% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
65.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Valdez—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
98°
Wind
10 195°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:51 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game