Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Jose Fernandez
Arizona Diamondbacks · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
MG Score
18
F
Tonight's Matchup
17
Matchup
Avoid
vs Eric Lauer · LHP · 86.6 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.85
WHIP
1.27
K%
13%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
79.9
85.7
Barrel%
1.9%
17.6%
Hard Hit%
30%
29%
xwOBA
.281
.368
xSLG
.367
.554
Whiff%
24%
11%
Chase%
41%
37%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Eric Lauer: 2 PA · Low sample
AB
2
AVG
.500
OPS
1.000
HR
0
H
1
K
1
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
79.9
Barrel%
1.9%
Hard Hit%
30%
Sweet Spot%
28%
xwOBA
0.281
xSLG
0.367
Recent Games
Last 5
20%
1/5 games
Last 10
20%
2/10 games
Last 20
35%
7/20 games
Last 30
33%
10/30 games
AVG
.138
OBP
.167
SLG
.241
OPS
.408
HR
0
RBI
1
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/31 | Seattle Mariners | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Seattle Mariners | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Seattle Mariners | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | San Francisco Giants | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | San Francisco Giants | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | San Francisco Giants | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Colorado Rockies | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Colorado Rockies | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Colorado Rockies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Jose Fernandez
Arizona Diamondbacks · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
85.5 mph
Avg LA
8.1°
Hard-hit %
41%
Barrel %
11%
Outcomes (98 balls)
Home Run
3Triple
0Double
5Single
26Out
64Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 6/1/2026
Games: 9
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
FPerformance Score
0Exit Velo
79.2 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
20.0%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
45.7%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.166
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
20.0%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: No standout metrics
Areas for Improvement: Exit Velo, Hard Hit%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
102.0 mph
Launch Angle
3.2°
xBA
0.169
xSLG
0.215
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
56.0%
Fly Ball%
12.0%
Line Drive%
16.0%
Pop Up%
16.0%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.