Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOSE FERNANDEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOSE
FERNANDEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Ranger Suarez · LHP
86.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
69
VS
ERA
3.30
WHIP
1.24
K%
26%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 102.8 | 88.4 |
| Barrel% | 50% | 4% |
| Hard Hit% | 100% | 44% |
| xwOBA | .428 | .410 |
| xSLG | .615 | .531 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 17% |
| Chase% | 25% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
102.8 avg EV · 50.0% barrel · 100% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Suarez—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
6 90°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game