Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
José Soriano
Los Angeles Angels · Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.24 · WHIP 1.52 · K 22% · 11 starts
JOSÉ SORIANO
Over K—@ —
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Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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JOSÉ
SORIANO
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Knuckle-Curve27%85 mph
Sinker25%96 mph
4-Seam23%96 mph
Splitter21%92 mph
Matchup
VS MIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.24
WHIP
1.52
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .385 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.6
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
6.00
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.00 ERA · 22% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
6 255°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:12 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.