Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOSÉ TENA
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOSÉ
TENA
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
64
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Gage Jump · LHP
91.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
79
VS
ERA
3.51
WHIP
1.29
K%
24%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.7 | 94.0 |
| Barrel% | 17% | 7% |
| Hard Hit% | 45% | 57% |
| xwOBA | .443 | .369 |
| xSLG | .620 | .461 |
| Whiff% | 24% | 30% |
| Chase% | 32% | 38% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.7 avg EV · 17.2% barrel · 45% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Jump—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
13 204°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+22%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:10 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game