Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
JOSH NAYLOR
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOSH
NAYLOR
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
32
Grade F
Matchup
VS Payton Tolle · LHP
92.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
22
VS
ERA
3.50
WHIP
1.17
K%
33%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.3 | 86.6 |
| Barrel% | 8% | 9% |
| Hard Hit% | 35% | 34% |
| xwOBA | .319 | .293 |
| xSLG | .435 | .417 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 26% |
| Chase% | 37% | 37% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.3 avg EV · 8.1% barrel · 35% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Tolle0
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
10 180°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game