Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOSH NAYLOR
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOSH
NAYLOR
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
52
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Landen Roupp · RHP
89.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
13
VS
ERA
5.23
WHIP
1.48
K%
23%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.1 | 86.1 |
| Barrel% | 8% | 4% |
| Hard Hit% | 36% | 17% |
| xwOBA | .316 | .263 |
| xSLG | .428 | .389 |
| Whiff% | 18% | 20% |
| Chase% | 41% | 26% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.1 avg EV · 8.2% barrel · 36% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Roupp—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
-12%
2B
-15%
3B
-35%
K
+18%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game