Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOSH ROJAS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOSH
ROJAS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
27
Grade F
Matchup
VS Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP
88.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
54
VS
ERA
4.75
WHIP
1.30
K%
13%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 81.8 | 94.8 |
| Barrel% | 3% | 35% |
| Hard Hit% | 31% | 53% |
| xwOBA | .248 | .638 |
| xSLG | .324 | 1.056 |
| Whiff% | 25% | 18% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
81.8 avg EV · 2.9% barrel · 31% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sugano—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
88°
Wind
3 75°
Rain
20%
HR Adj
-8%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:41 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game