Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOSH SMITH
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOSH
SMITH
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
25
Grade F
Matchup
VS Hunter Brown · RHP
92.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
17
VS
ERA
3.45
WHIP
1.28
K%
25%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.2 | 94.1 |
| Barrel% | 7% | 13% |
| Hard Hit% | 21% | 50% |
| xwOBA | .245 | .281 |
| xSLG | .363 | .426 |
| Whiff% | 19% | 40% |
| Chase% | 39% | 36% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.2 avg EV · 7.1% barrel · 21% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Brown0
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
95°
Wind
15 162°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+16%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game