Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOSHUA BÁEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOSHUA
BÁEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Rhett Lowder · RHP
88.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
98
VS
ERA
5.54
WHIP
1.53
K%
17%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 97.4 | 89.4 |
| Barrel% | 33% | 13% |
| Hard Hit% | 83% | 37% |
| xwOBA | .750 | .368 |
| xSLG | 1.378 | .558 |
| Whiff% | 25% | 17% |
| Chase% | 31% | 32% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
97.4 avg EV · 33.3% barrel · 83% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Lowder—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
3 131°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:20 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game