Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JOSHUA KURODA-GRAUER
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JOSHUA
KURODA-GRAUER
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Justin Wrobleski · LHP
91.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
51
VS
ERA
2.05
WHIP
0.82
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 80.9 | 93.6 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 13% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 52% |
| xwOBA | .442 | .400 |
| xSLG | .531 | .565 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 15% |
| Chase% | 33% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
80.9 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Wrobleski—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
+3%
2B
+5%
3B
0%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
86°
Wind
14 208°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+25%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 8:57 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game