JP SEARS

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

JP

SEARS

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam35%93 mph

Changeup26%85 mph

Matchup

VS CHC LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

48

Average

projected lineup

VS

ERA

3.18

WHIP

1.24

K%

20%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	22%	25%
SwStr%	12.3%	11%
Chase%	32%	28%
xwOBA-a	.415	.315
Barrel%-a	11%	8%
HardHit%-a	39%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

5.0

K/GM

5.7

IP/GM

3.18

ERA

1.24

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

20% season K rate

Contact Suppression

11% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 1 starts

0 of 1 starts over

Last 5: 3.18 ERA · 20% K

5

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs CHC—

Tonight's Park

HR

-8%

Hits

-3%

2B

-15%

3B

+16%

K

+3%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

87°

Wind

15 222°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+25%

K Adj

-3%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 9:14 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.