Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JP Sears
San Diego Padres · San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.68 · WHIP 1.35 · K 17% · 8 starts
JP SEARS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
JP
SEARS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam38%93 mph
Changeup21%85 mph
Slider14%81 mph
Sweeper13%79 mph
Sinker12%92 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.68
WHIP
1.35
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 25% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .356 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 48% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.2
K/GM
3.5
IP/GM
4.67
ERA
1.33
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 48% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 8 starts
0 of 8 starts over
Last 5: 4.67 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
8 246°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:32 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.