JR RITCHIE

K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

JR

RITCHIE

K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

4-Seam35%95 mph

Changeup24%88 mph

Matchup

VS CIN LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

18

Terrible

projected lineup

VS

ERA

5.35

WHIP

1.49

K%

23%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	23%	25%
SwStr%	11.0%	11%
Chase%	30%	28%
xwOBA-a	.500	.315
Barrel%-a	21%	8%
HardHit%-a	57%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

3.2

K/GM

3.5

IP/GM

6.11

ERA

1.47

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

23% season K rate

Contact Suppression

21% barrel · 57% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Neutral park · air suppressing HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 10 starts

0 of 10 starts over

Last 5: 6.11 ERA · 21% K

5

4

7

4

1

2

1

4

4

5

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs CIN—

Tonight's Park

HR

+3%

Hits

+2%

2B

-4%

3B

0%

K

+7%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

78°

Wind

5 53°

Rain

26%

HR Adj

-12%

K Adj

-4%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 9:17 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.