JR RITCHIE

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

JR

RITCHIE

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Sinker31%95 mph

Curveball25%83 mph

Changeup16%88 mph

4-Seam12%95 mph

Cutter7%89 mph

Slider7%85 mph

Matchup

VS STL LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

VS

ERA

4.38

WHIP

1.40

K%

20%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	24%	25%
SwStr%	9.0%	11%
Chase%	24%	28%
xwOBA-a	.388	.315
Barrel%-a	13%	8%
HardHit%-a	40%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

3.6

K/GM

3.7

IP/GM

5.30

ERA

1.50

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

20% season K rate

Contact Suppression

13% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Pitcher's park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 11 starts

0 of 11 starts over

Last 5: 5.30 ERA · 21% K

7

4

2

4

4

5

4

7

4

1

2

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs STL—

Tonight's Park

HR

-11%

Hits

+3%

2B

+3%

3B

-6%

K

-9%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

86°

Wind

2 296°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+5%

K Adj

-4%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 5:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.