Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JT Brubaker
San Francisco Giants · Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.50 · WHIP 0.94 · K 14% · 10 starts
JT BRUBAKER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
JT
BRUBAKER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker37%93 mph
Slider22%87 mph
Changeup21%88 mph
Curveball15%82 mph
Matchup
VS DET LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
62
VS
ERA
3.50
WHIP
0.94
K%
14%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .367 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 30% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.0
K/GM
1.8
IP/GM
5.00
ERA
1.22
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
14% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 30% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 5.00 ERA · 13% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs DET—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
66°
Wind
11 248°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:35 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.