Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Juan Soto
New York Mets · New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners
MG Score
66
B-
Tonight's Matchup
80
Matchup
Strong matchup
vs Logan Gilbert · RHP · 89.6 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
2.94
WHIP
0.80
K%
26%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
92.5
94.4
Barrel%
15.4%
18.8%
Hard Hit%
51%
50%
xwOBA
.436
.394
xSLG
.731
.533
Whiff%
20%
21%
Chase%
19%
19%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Logan Gilbert: 15 PA · Low sample
AB
13
AVG
.076
OPS
.277
HR
0
H
1
K
6
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
92.5
Barrel%
15.4%
Hard Hit%
51%
Sweet Spot%
24%
xwOBA
0.436
xSLG
0.731
Recent Games
Last 5
80%
4/5 games
Last 10
70%
7/10 games
Last 20
70%
14/20 games
Last 30
68%
15/22 games
AVG
.314
OBP
.385
SLG
.829
OPS
1.213
HR
6
RBI
12
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Seattle Mariners | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/31 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Miami Marlins | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Miami Marlins | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Miami Marlins | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/21 | Washington Nationals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/20 | Washington Nationals | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Juan Soto
New York Mets · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
93.5 mph
Avg LA
14.3°
Hard-hit %
55%
Barrel %
21%
Outcomes (91 balls)
Home Run
6Triple
1Double
3Single
20Out
61Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 6/1/2026
Games: 7
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
APerformance Score
80Exit Velo
94.2 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
54.5%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
14.3%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.450
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
31.8%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: xwOBA, Exit Velo
Areas for Improvement: Well-rounded performance
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
109.0 mph
Launch Angle
12.0°
xBA
0.377
xSLG
0.684
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
50.0%
Fly Ball%
45.5%
Line Drive%
4.5%
Pop Up%
N/A
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.