Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JUSTIN FOSCUE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JUSTIN
FOSCUE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
52
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Noah Schultz · LHP
90.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
85
VS
ERA
5.55
WHIP
1.34
K%
20%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.8 | 87.4 |
| Barrel% | 15% | 20% |
| Hard Hit% | 35% | 43% |
| xwOBA | .381 | .475 |
| xSLG | .596 | .736 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 20% |
| Chase% | 25% | 35% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.8 avg EV · 15.4% barrel · 35% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Schultz—
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:15 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game