Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Justin Hagenman
New York Mets · New York Mets vs Washington Nationals · Pitcher
ERA 4.50 · WHIP 1.00 · K 13% · 2 starts
JUSTIN HAGENMAN
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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JUSTIN
HAGENMAN
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam45%91 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.50
WHIP
1.00
K%
13%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 14% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .455 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 23% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.0
K/GM
2.0
IP/GM
4.50
ERA
1.00
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
13% season K rate
Contact Suppression
23% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
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Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 2 starts
0 of 2 starts over
Last 5: 4.50 ERA · 13% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
14 340°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 8:09 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.