Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Justin Wrobleski
Los Angeles Dodgers · Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.58 · WHIP 1.18 · K 26% · 10 starts
JUSTIN WROBLESKI
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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JUSTIN
WROBLESKI
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam58%96 mph
Slider23%88 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
36
VS
ERA
4.58
WHIP
1.18
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 24% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 23% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .443 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 17% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
8.72
ERA
1.57
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
17% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 8.72 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
4 276°
Rain
30%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:33 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.