Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Justin Wrobleski
Los Angeles Dodgers · Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.24 · WHIP 1.02 · K 22% · 12 starts
JUSTIN WROBLESKI
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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JUSTIN
WROBLESKI
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam48%95 mph
Slider22%87 mph
Sinker11%94 mph
Changeup8%86 mph
Matchup
VS COL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.24
WHIP
1.02
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .424 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 51% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.6
K/GM
5.8
IP/GM
2.17
ERA
0.90
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 51% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 2.17 ERA · 30% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs COL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
4 217°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.