Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
KAELEN CULPEPPER
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
KAELEN
CULPEPPER
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Robert Gasser · LHP
88.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
56
VS
ERA
4.17
WHIP
1.11
K%
23%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.2 | 86.1 |
| Barrel% | 25% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 25% | 37% |
| xwOBA | .371 | .422 |
| xSLG | .602 | .593 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 18% |
| Chase% | 75% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.2 avg EV · 25.0% barrel · 25% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Gasser—
Tonight's Park
HR
+8%
Hits
-6%
2B
-17%
3B
-9%
K
+11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:49 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game