Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Keider Montero
Detroit Tigers · Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.70 · WHIP 0.96 · K 17% · 10 starts
KEIDER MONTERO
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
KEIDER
MONTERO
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam32%94 mph
Sinker21%95 mph
Slider19%86 mph
Knuckle-Curve15%80 mph
Changeup13%87 mph
Matchup
VS HOU LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.70
WHIP
0.96
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 13% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .323 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 31% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.4
K/GM
3.3
IP/GM
1.62
ERA
0.96
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 31% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.62 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs HOU—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
9 69°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:57 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.