Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Keider Montero
Detroit Tigers · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.10 · WHIP 0.99 · K 16% · 11 starts
KEIDER MONTERO
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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KEIDER
MONTERO
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam28%94 mph
Slider22%86 mph
Sinker21%95 mph
Changeup16%87 mph
Knuckle-Curve12%80 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.10
WHIP
0.99
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 15% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .283 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.6
K/GM
5.7
IP/GM
2.83
ERA
0.91
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.83 ERA · 12% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
69°
Wind
6 183°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-6%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:26 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.