Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
KETEL MARTE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
KETEL
MARTE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
55
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Michael McGreevy · RHP
87.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
55
VS
ERA
3.67
WHIP
1.30
K%
14%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.2 | 91.1 |
| Barrel% | 16% | 18% |
| Hard Hit% | 44% | 41% |
| xwOBA | .375 | .288 |
| xSLG | .563 | .393 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 24% |
| Chase% | 29% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.2 avg EV · 16.5% barrel · 44% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs McGreevy—
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game