Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Kevin Gausman
Chicago Cubs · Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.65 · WHIP 1.39 · K 24% · 10 starts
KEVIN GAUSMAN
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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KEVIN
GAUSMAN
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam50%94 mph
Splitter43%85 mph
Slider5%84 mph
Matchup
VS CIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.65
WHIP
1.39
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 24% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 36% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .353 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
4.13
ERA
1.08
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.13 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
8 242°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:43 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.