Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kevin Gausman
Toronto Blue Jays · Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.72 · WHIP 1.33 · K 26% · 11 starts
KEVIN GAUSMAN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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KEVIN
GAUSMAN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam47%94 mph
Splitter40%84 mph
Slider13%83 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.72
WHIP
1.33
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 30% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .403 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 16% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 47% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.0
K/GM
5.1
IP/GM
7.46
ERA
1.86
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
16% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 7.46 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
11 257°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:11 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.