Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kevin McGonigle
Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays
MG Score
40
F
Tonight's Matchup
64
Matchup
Neutral matchup
vs Steven Matz · LHP · 86.6 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
5.48
WHIP
1.43
K%
14%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
87.6
88.9
Barrel%
5.1%
28.6%
Hard Hit%
37%
50%
xwOBA
.294
.560
xSLG
.402
.796
Whiff%
13%
11%
Chase%
19%
25%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Steven Matz.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
87.6
Barrel%
5.1%
Hard Hit%
37%
Sweet Spot%
28%
xwOBA
0.294
xSLG
0.402
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
80%
8/10 games
Last 20
75%
15/20 games
Last 30
67%
16/24 games
AVG
.289
OBP
.386
SLG
.421
OPS
.807
HR
1
RBI
3
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/31 | Chicago White Sox | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 5/30 | Chicago White Sox | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Chicago White Sox | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Los Angeles Angels | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Los Angeles Angels | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Los Angeles Angels | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Baltimore Orioles | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/21 | Cleveland Guardians | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Kevin McGonigle
Detroit Tigers · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
88.1 mph
Avg LA
20.0°
Hard-hit %
37%
Barrel %
16%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
1Triple
0Double
6Single
26Out
67Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.