Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kodai Senga
New York Mets · Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 8.80 · WHIP 1.75 · K 24% · 12 starts
KODAI SENGA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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KODAI
SENGA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam39%97 mph
FO35%84 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
8.80
WHIP
1.75
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 29% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .483 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 23% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 45% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.2
K/GM
1.1
IP/GM
3.38
ERA
1.31
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
23% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 3.38 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
18 180°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+21%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:31 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.