Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Kohl Drake
Arizona Diamondbacks · Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.53 · WHIP 1.50 · K 18% · 5 starts
KOHL DRAKE
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
KOHL
DRAKE
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam44%91 mph
Changeup18%82 mph
Curveball14%79 mph
Cutter13%86 mph
Slider11%81 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.53
WHIP
1.50
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 11% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 4.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 22% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .508 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 15% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
4.1
IP/GM
6.53
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
15% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 5 starts
0 of 5 starts over
Last 5: 6.53 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
67°
Wind
8 264°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.