Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kohl Drake
Arizona Diamondbacks · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals · Pitcher
ERA 1.80 · WHIP 1.20 · K 24% · 1 starts
KOHL DRAKE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
KOHL
DRAKE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Pitch-mix data not available.
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
23
projected lineup
VS
ERA
1.80
WHIP
1.20
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 33% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 15.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 25% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .417 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 15% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.0
K/GM
5.0
IP/GM
1.80
ERA
1.20
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
15% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 1 starts
0 of 1 starts over
Last 5: 1.80 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
2 255°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+3%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:31 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.