Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kumar Rocker
Texas Rangers · Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.06 · WHIP 1.28 · K 22% · 11 starts
KUMAR ROCKER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
KUMAR
ROCKER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider37%83 mph
Cutter25%90 mph
Sinker22%94 mph
4-Seam14%94 mph
Matchup
VS HOU LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.06
WHIP
1.28
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 32% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .403 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.6
K/GM
4.9
IP/GM
6.66
ERA
1.44
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.66 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs HOU—
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.