Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kyle Bradish
Baltimore Orioles · Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.85 · WHIP 1.16 · K 23% · 11 starts
KYLE BRADISH
Over K—@ —
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K
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H
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KYLE
BRADISH
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker41%95 mph
Slider24%89 mph
Curveball22%86 mph
4-Seam13%95 mph
Matchup
VS KC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.85
WHIP
1.16
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .330 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.6
K/GM
6.8
IP/GM
2.12
ERA
0.88
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.12 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs KC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-2%
Hits
+3%
2B
-5%
3B
+32%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
9 104°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.