Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kyle Freeland
Colorado Rockies · Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 8.07 · WHIP 1.62 · K 19% · 11 starts
KYLE FREELAND
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
KYLE
FREELAND
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Cutter29%88 mph
4-Seam24%92 mph
Knuckle-Curve20%83 mph
Changeup12%86 mph
Sweeper8%83 mph
Sinker7%92 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
8.07
WHIP
1.62
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .403 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 17% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 45% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.0
K/GM
5.9
IP/GM
6.14
ERA
1.30
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
17% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.14 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
7 247°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.