Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Kyle Freeland
Colorado Rockies · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.93 · WHIP 1.23 · K 20% · 11 starts
KYLE FREELAND
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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KYLE
FREELAND
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Knuckle-Curve22%83 mph
Cutter22%88 mph
4-Seam20%91 mph
Sinker18%91 mph
Changeup9%86 mph
Sweeper8%83 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.93
WHIP
1.23
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 36% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .340 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
6.1
IP/GM
3.56
ERA
1.12
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.56 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
89°
Wind
13 82°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+6%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:20 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.