Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kyle Harrison
Milwaukee Brewers · Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.50 · WHIP 1.06 · K 30% · 11 starts
KYLE HARRISON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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KYLE
HARRISON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam57%95 mph
Slurve33%82 mph
Changeup7%87 mph
Matchup
VS STL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.50
WHIP
1.06
K%
30%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .320 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 48% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
3.75
ERA
0.88
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
30% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 48% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.75 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs STL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
5 145°
Rain
87%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:25 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.