Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
KYLE KARROS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
KYLE
KARROS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
49
Grade D
Matchup
VS Cam Schlittler · RHP
96.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
36
VS
ERA
2.11
WHIP
0.96
K%
34%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 80.3 | 89.1 |
| Barrel% | 14% | 7% |
| Hard Hit% | 29% | 42% |
| xwOBA | .366 | .341 |
| xSLG | .582 | .484 |
| Whiff% | 9% | 31% |
| Chase% | 30% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
80.3 avg EV · 14.3% barrel · 29% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Schlittler—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
2 69°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-17%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game