Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kyle Leahy
St. Louis Cardinals · Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.96 · WHIP 1.26 · K 21% · 11 starts
KYLE LEAHY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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KYLE
LEAHY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam26%95 mph
Curveball17%83 mph
Slider17%90 mph
Changeup15%89 mph
Sweeper14%85 mph
Sinker12%94 mph
Matchup
VS ATL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.96
WHIP
1.26
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .326 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 53% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.6
K/GM
5.1
IP/GM
1.42
ERA
0.95
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 53% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.42 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ATL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
86°
Wind
2 296°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+5%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.