Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Kyle Schwarber
Philadelphia Phillies · San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies
MG Score
69
B-
Tonight's Matchup
98
Matchup
Smash spot
vs Randy Vásquez · RHP · 91.0 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
3.23
WHIP
1.14
K%
12%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
92.2
90.5
Barrel%
31.6%
18.5%
Hard Hit%
49%
47%
xwOBA
.596
.461
xSLG
.993
.713
Whiff%
31%
15%
Chase%
28%
28%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Randy Vásquez: 6 PA · Low sample
AB
5
AVG
.200
OPS
1.133
HR
1
H
1
K
0
Tonight's Park · Citizens Bank Park
Big HR parkHR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
92.2
Barrel%
31.6%
Hard Hit%
49%
Sweet Spot%
46%
xwOBA
0.596
xSLG
0.993
Recent Games
Last 5
80%
4/5 games
Last 10
60%
6/10 games
Last 20
75%
15/20 games
Last 30
68%
15/22 games
AVG
.220
OBP
.256
SLG
.390
OPS
.646
HR
2
RBI
3
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/27 | San Diego Padres | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | San Diego Padres | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | San Diego Padres | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 5/17 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Kyle Schwarber
Philadelphia Phillies · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
93.5 mph
Avg LA
20.5°
Hard-hit %
51%
Barrel %
30%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
19Triple
1Double
8Single
13Out
59Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 5/31/2026
Games: 8
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
BPerformance Score
69Exit Velo
89.7 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
45.0%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
25.3%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.478
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
40.0%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: xwOBA, Sweet Spot%
Areas for Improvement: Chase%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
107.8 mph
Launch Angle
10.9°
xBA
0.427
xSLG
0.691
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
45.0%
Fly Ball%
30.0%
Line Drive%
25.0%
Pop Up%
N/A
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.