Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Landen Roupp
San Francisco Giants · Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.40 · WHIP 1.33 · K 17% · 11 starts
LANDEN ROUPP
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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LANDEN
ROUPP
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker29%93 mph
Curveball25%77 mph
Changeup25%87 mph
4-Seam10%93 mph
Cutter10%90 mph
Matchup
VS ARI LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.40
WHIP
1.33
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 24% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .347 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 27% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
5.2
IP/GM
4.85
ERA
1.54
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 27% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.85 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ARI—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
67°
Wind
8 264°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:41 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.