Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Landen Roupp
San Francisco Giants · San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners · Pitcher
ERA 5.23 · WHIP 1.48 · K 23% · 10 starts
LANDEN ROUPP
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
LANDEN
ROUPP
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker36%94 mph
Changeup21%87 mph
Curveball19%77 mph
Cutter17%91 mph
4-Seam7%93 mph
Matchup
VS SEA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
82
projected lineup
VS
ERA
5.23
WHIP
1.48
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .298 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 23% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.4
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
4.94
ERA
1.35
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 23% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.94 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SEA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
-12%
2B
-15%
3B
-35%
K
+18%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:49 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.