Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
LARS NOOTBAAR
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
LARS
NOOTBAAR
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
66
Grade B-
Matchup
VS Walbert Ureña · RHP
91.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
40
VS
ERA
2.67
WHIP
1.26
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.8 | 79.8 |
| Barrel% | 16% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 47% | 11% |
| xwOBA | .376 | .179 |
| xSLG | .558 | .221 |
| Whiff% | 18% | 22% |
| Chase% | 14% | 25% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.8 avg EV · 16.4% barrel · 47% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Ureña—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
86°
Wind
9 231°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:13 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game