Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
LEO BERNAL
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
LEO
BERNAL
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP
91.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
61
VS
ERA
2.44
WHIP
0.92
K%
26%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 95.7 | 88.3 |
| Barrel% | 33% | 13% |
| Hard Hit% | 67% | 43% |
| xwOBA | .368 | .311 |
| xSLG | .510 | .415 |
| Whiff% | 33% | 27% |
| Chase% | 17% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
95.7 avg EV · 33.3% barrel · 67% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Yamamoto—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
71°
Wind
7 230°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:03 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game