Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Logan Gilbert
Seattle Mariners · Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.67 · WHIP 0.77 · K 29% · 10 starts
LOGAN GILBERT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
LOGAN
GILBERT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam61%97 mph
Slider20%87 mph
Splitter9%83 mph
Changeup7%86 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.67
WHIP
0.77
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 29% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 16.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 37% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .314 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 32% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.4
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
1.95
ERA
0.58
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 32% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 1.95 ERA · 33% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:39 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.