Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Logan Webb
San Francisco Giants · Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.55 · WHIP 1.08 · K 20% · 10 starts
LOGAN WEBB
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
LOGAN
WEBB
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Changeup27%86 mph
Sinker22%92 mph
Sweeper18%84 mph
4-Seam18%92 mph
Cutter16%89 mph
Matchup
VS TOR LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.55
WHIP
1.08
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .364 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.2
K/GM
5.6
IP/GM
4.50
ERA
1.21
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.50 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TOR—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
59°
Wind
7 301°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-8%
K Adj
+1%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.