Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Logan Webb
San Francisco Giants · Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.97 · WHIP 1.20 · K 17% · 10 starts
LOGAN WEBB
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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LOGAN
WEBB
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper23%84 mph
Changeup20%85 mph
Cutter20%90 mph
Sinker20%92 mph
4-Seam17%92 mph
Matchup
VS CIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.97
WHIP
1.20
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .311 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 31% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.4
K/GM
5.1
IP/GM
3.16
ERA
1.09
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 31% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.16 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
71°
Wind
7 297°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:00 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.