Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
LOURDES GURRIEL JR.
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
LOURDES GURRIEL
JR.
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Daniel Lynch IV · LHP
89.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
26
VS
ERA
5.92
WHIP
1.40
K%
11%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.6 | 89.2 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 25% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .220 | .383 |
| xSLG | .268 | .566 |
| Whiff% | 31% | 10% |
| Chase% | 43% | 25% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.6 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 25% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs IV—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
11 99°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:04 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game