Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
LUCAS SPENCE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
LUCAS
SPENCE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Trevor Rogers · LHP
90.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
36
VS
ERA
3.70
WHIP
1.16
K%
17%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.1 | 88.1 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 6% |
| Hard Hit% | 67% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .182 | .343 |
| xSLG | .245 | .481 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 21% |
| Chase% | 0% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.1 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 67% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Rogers—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
95°
Wind
8 191°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:43 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game