Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
LUIS ARRAEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
LUIS
ARRAEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
31
Grade F
Matchup
VS Brandon Pfaadt · RHP
88.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
7
VS
ERA
2.19
WHIP
0.96
K%
16%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 79.4 | 87.0 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 6% |
| Hard Hit% | 5% | 28% |
| xwOBA | .274 | .313 |
| xSLG | .354 | .439 |
| Whiff% | 4% | 21% |
| Chase% | 50% | 31% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
79.4 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 5% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Pfaadt1
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:25 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game