Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Luis Castillo
Seattle Mariners · Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.22 · WHIP 1.07 · K 21% · 10 starts
LUIS CASTILLO
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
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H
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LUIS
CASTILLO
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Pitch-mix data not available.
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.22
WHIP
1.07
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 36% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .327 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
4.4
IP/GM
3.68
ERA
1.23
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.68 ERA · 17% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.