Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Luis Castillo
Chicago White Sox · Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.69 · WHIP 1.52 · K 17% · 11 starts
LUIS CASTILLO
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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LUIS
CASTILLO
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam36%95 mph
Sinker26%96 mph
Changeup20%88 mph
Slider18%87 mph
Matchup
VS MIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.69
WHIP
1.52
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 32% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 15.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .442 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 47% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
6.45
ERA
1.66
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.45 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
12 90°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+10%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:39 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.