Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
LUIS GARCÍA
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
LUIS
GARCÍA
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
66
Grade B-
Matchup
VS Spencer Arrighetti · RHP
84.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
83
VS
ERA
4.83
WHIP
1.19
K%
24%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.3 | 87.5 |
| Barrel% | 21% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 47% | 31% |
| xwOBA | .484 | .387 |
| xSLG | .787 | .573 |
| Whiff% | 16% | 27% |
| Chase% | 39% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.3 avg EV · 20.5% barrel · 47% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Arrighetti—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
4 249°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game