Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
LUKE KEASCHALL
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
LUKE
KEASCHALL
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
47
Grade D
Matchup
VS Colin Rea · RHP
90.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
41
VS
ERA
4.82
WHIP
1.47
K%
15%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 82.7 | 88.6 |
| Barrel% | 4% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 26% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .300 | .486 |
| xSLG | .418 | .706 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 9% |
| Chase% | 17% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
82.7 avg EV · 3.7% barrel · 26% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Rea—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
85°
Wind
6 276°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:10 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game