Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
MacKenzie Gore
Texas Rangers · Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.74 · WHIP 1.32 · K 25% · 11 starts
MACKENZIE GORE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MACKENZIE
GORE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam47%96 mph
Curveball19%82 mph
Changeup14%87 mph
Cutter11%90 mph
Slider8%86 mph
Matchup
VS HOU LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.74
WHIP
1.32
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .355 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 45% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.8
K/GM
5.4
IP/GM
5.67
ERA
1.22
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.67 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs HOU—
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.