Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
MARCUS SEMIEN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
MARCUS
SEMIEN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
44
Grade D
Matchup
VS Jesús Luzardo · LHP
91.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
38
VS
ERA
2.18
WHIP
1.13
K%
31%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.4 | 88.0 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 29% | 38% |
| xwOBA | .255 | .264 |
| xSLG | .333 | .324 |
| Whiff% | 28% | 35% |
| Chase% | 37% | 34% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.4 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 29% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Luzardo0
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
88°
Wind
8 244°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:44 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game