Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Martín Pérez
Atlanta Braves · Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.31 · WHIP 1.42 · K 18% · 11 starts
MARTÍN PÉREZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MARTÍN
PÉREZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker38%88 mph
Cutter30%84 mph
Changeup23%81 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.31
WHIP
1.42
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 25% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .390 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.6
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
5.64
ERA
1.70
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.64 ERA · 13% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
73°
Wind
7 250°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+3%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:43 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.