Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Matt Waldron
Washington Nationals · Colorado Rockies vs Washington Nationals · Pitcher
ERA 7.36 · WHIP 1.69 · K 19% · 10 starts
MATT WALDRON
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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MATT
WALDRON
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Knuckleball37%80 mph
Cutter28%88 mph
Matchup
VS COL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
72
projected lineup
VS
ERA
7.36
WHIP
1.69
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 13% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 5.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .251 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 24% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.8
K/GM
1.3
IP/GM
8.53
ERA
1.89
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 24% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 8.53 ERA · 13% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs COL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
9 139°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 10:29 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.