Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Matthew Liberatore
St. Louis Cardinals · Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.21 · WHIP 1.30 · K 29% · 11 starts
MATTHEW LIBERATORE
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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MATTHEW
LIBERATORE
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider30%85 mph
4-Seam28%94 mph
Curveball19%80 mph
Changeup12%88 mph
Sinker7%94 mph
Matchup
VS PIT LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.21
WHIP
1.30
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .427 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.8
K/GM
5.2
IP/GM
7.27
ERA
1.35
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 7.27 ERA · 30% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PIT—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
91°
Wind
6 0°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:44 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.