Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Max Fried
New York Yankees · Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.31 · WHIP 1.16 · K 28% · 11 starts
MAX FRIED
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MAX
FRIED
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker23%93 mph
4-Seam19%94 mph
Cutter17%92 mph
Sweeper15%79 mph
Curveball13%73 mph
Changeup11%85 mph
Matchup
VS COL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.31
WHIP
1.16
K%
28%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .340 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 3% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 25% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.2
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
1.50
ERA
1.00
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
28% season K rate
Contact Suppression
3% barrel · 25% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.50 ERA · 28% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs COL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
6 278°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:08 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.